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MOSCOW, September 25. /TASS/. Israel hits Hezbollah with massive airstrikes as it unleashes war in Lebanon; the UN General Assembly kicks off its High-Level Week in New York; and Tehran seeks to win West’s trust by criticizing Moscow’s special military operation. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
The Israeli Air Force carried out strikes on 1,600 targets belonging to the Hezbollah Shia movement in southern Lebanon and on the border with Syria as part of a pre-emptive operation it has dubbed Northern Arrows, the Israel Defense Forces said. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, the Israeli attacks killed 558 people, including 50 children, and left at least 1,835 injured, Vedomosti writes.
Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Herzi Halevi said before the large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon that the military operation was aimed at creating conditions for the safe return of residents of northern Israel to their homes, as well as at destroying Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has now reached a stage where it could escalate to the next phase – a ground offensive, Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ School of Asian Studies, pointed out. The Israeli leadership’s statements about the need for Israeli citizens to return to their homes in the country’s north are a strong indication that this will happen. “In order to give them such an opportunity, the Israeli armed forces need to force Hezbollah to move back from the Litani River in southern Lebanon,” the expert explained. Hezbollah, in turn, is keen on showing solidarity with the Gaza-based Hamas movement, Zeltyn added.
There is no need to speak about a full-scale war in the region as long as there is no ground operation in Lebanon, Dmitry Maryasis, editor-in-chief of the Middle East Economy magazine, noted. However, in the expert’s words, the Israeli authorities are already headed towards making this decision and all things being equal, an Israeli incursion is possible. In this case, Israel is likely to try to push Hezbollah fighters 10-12 kilometers away from the border in order to ensure the safe return of Israelis to their homes in the north, Maryasis said.
Sam Heller, a Beirut-based expert with the Century International think tank, told Kommersant that Hezbollah was not interested in an all-out war with Israel despite having the resources for a protracted conflict. The expert does not expect the Lebanon-based movement to opt for open warfare so at the end of the day, it’s going to be Israel that will determine the intensity and the scope of the conflict.
The Ukrainian conflict was one of the main topics of discussion on the first day of the 79th United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) High-Level Week that kicked off in New York on September 24. President of the 79th UNGA session Philemon Yang and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres each delivered addresses on the first day, while discussions were opened by the presidents of Brazil and the US, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Joe Biden. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is scheduled to address the assembly September 28, Izvestia writes.
“Heads of state and governments and foreign ministers usually take advantage of the High-Level Week to clarify their positions to the international community. Just as importantly, the event also makes it possible to hold bilateral and multilateral meetings, which can be seen as a unique opportunity because it’s often difficult to plan such meetings as part of diplomatic activities because the specific schedules of officials from different countries may not match,” Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former UN under-secretary general, told the paper.
The Ukraine conflict was one of the focuses of the first day and will likely continue to be a big part of the agenda. While Biden reiterated that the US would not stop supporting Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky is getting set to deliver his address on September 25, when he will try to win the support of various members of the global community, including the countries of the Global South. Meanwhile, discussions continue in the media about whether Washington and London will allow the Ukrainian armed forces to use long-range weapons for attacks inside Russia. There are rumors that Kiev will get the green light during or shortly after the UNGA session.
However, Washington is unwilling to announce permission for strikes inside Russia due to serious concerns about an escalation of tensions, American historian and former Harvard University professor Vladimir Brovkin pointed out. “Kiev hosted the Yalta European Strategy conference on September 13-14. [US National Security Advisor] Jake Sullivan, various generals, top diplomats and other key figures addressed the event. All of them said they would do everything to help Ukraine achieve victory – they said victory, not negotiations. However, Sullivan did not mention victory in his address and failed to give a clear answer to the question about permission for Kiev to carry out strikes inside Russia. I get the impression that after the Russian president gave his warning, they are starting to back down. They may have realized that they have gone too far,” the expert noted.
Moscow will continue to communicate its position on Ukraine to the Iranian authorities, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told foreign reporters in New York that his country had never supported military operations against Ukraine. He also highlighted Tehran’s willingness to engage in talks with Western countries on the issue. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe that such gestures signal a potential shift in US-Iran relations.
The Iranian president’s statements were striking. Since 2022, Iranian officials have publicly denounced the use of force in Ukraine in a bid to fend off the global community’s accusations of defense support for Russia, but they have never made tough statements before. However, Pezeshkian’s recent remarks look more like an attempt to win the West’s trust, particularly given his other comments from the meeting with foreign media. The Iranian president particularly said that his country was fully ready to resume compliance with the nuclear deal as long as the US and European countries fulfilled their obligations.
“As for the statement that Tehran had never approved of what Russia is doing in Ukraine, Pezeshkian was quite consistent here,” Russian International Affairs Council expert Nikita Smagin noted. “The most that the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, specifically, was that it’s the West that is to blame for the conflict. However, none of Iran’s high-ranking officials has ever said they approved of Russia’s actions. It’s certainly a very careful position that leaves some room for maneuver,” he added.
“At this point, all these statements are aimed at showing the West that Iran is ready to reconsider its relationship with them and potentially bury the hatchet,” Smagin maintained. “Pezeshkian’s attempts to normalize relations with the West largely stem from the understanding by the conservative elite, namely the supreme leader, that the parties need to maintain normal contact at least at some level,” the analyst went on to say. The main goal, from their perspective, is to prevent an all-out war between Iran and the US, Smagin emphasized. Beyond that, it would be nice to make an agreement to ease Western pressure on Iran. “However, the question is whether Pezeshkian will be able to achieve that,” the expert concluded.
Like the rest of the world, Russia will be impacted by climate change, a process that is already happening. However, unlike in many other countries, the economic impact of global warming will be positive in Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, citing economists from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to their estimates, if the average annual temperature in the country rises by one degree Celsius, Russia’s annual GDP will increase by over one trillion rubles ($10 bln). Agriculture and the transport sector, boosted by the development of the Northern Sea Route, will be the main beneficiaries of climate change.
While global warming is exacerbating problems like drought and water shortages in the country’s southern regions, the production and logistics capacities of the north are growing, experts point out. Increased crop yields would mean more export revenues for Russia, the mining industry stands to gain from increased production in the country’s north, and climate change would improve sea and river navigation owing to a shorter ice season.
However, experts emphasize that the economy’s growth is by no means a given. Policies will need to be enacted to adapt to climate change. In particular, more steps need to be taken to develop the Northern Sea Route’s infrastructure and increase technical support for the agricultural sector.
The main beneficiaries of climate change will be agriculture, forestry, the energy and transport industries, Maxim Maximov, an associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University, said. “An increase in temperature, precipitation and river flows could have a positive impact both on the range of crops and the size of areas under cultivation. These factors are also good for forest growth rates. Still, the analysts expect the biggest boon to come from the expanding opportunities for navigation along the Northern Sea Route and some major Siberian rivers. Another potential positive factor is that new opportunities may open up for the domestic fishing industry because fish may migrate to Russian waters,” the expert noted.
Global demand for diesel fuel is on the decline. The International Energy Agency expects diesel fuel consumption to fall by 0.9% this year compared to 2023. Meanwhile, new oil refineries have opened in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, increasing supply amid reduced demand, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes.
Russia is one of the major diesel fuel suppliers to the global market. The country used to export up to half of the diesel fuel it produced. Once Europe, which was the main consumer of Russian diesel, shut itself off from Russia, exports were redirected to India, Turkey and other countries. Still, experts don’t rule out that much of the Russian diesel fuel in fact ended up on the European market. However, if diesel demand really starts to decline across the world, the country will face tough competition from other producers.
National Energy Security Fund Director Konstantin Simonov suggests taking the above-mentioned forecast with a grain of salt as it covers quite a short period. Diesel fuel has its advantages, including cost effectiveness, but there also are some strategic difficulties because diesel engines are noisy and not environmentally friendly. As for this year’s situation, Russian companies are in good position, Simonov said. Even the Bloomberg agency recorded a 10% rise in Russian maritime exports of diesel fuel and heating oil in September, which is quite a lot. So far, there have been no issues with Russian diesel exports.
That said, tighter environmental restrictions are making diesel a less attractive commodity, Sergey Teryoshkin, director general of the OPEN OIL MARKET marketplace of oil products and commodities, specified. In addition, gas fuel is becoming a strong rival for diesel. However, every cloud has a silver lining. Teryoshkin believes that maritime transport’s shift to gas fuel will create new opportunities for the Russian gas industry.
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